• Decreases high-impact crimes, robberies and crimes socio-relatives in the country during 2014.
• The homicide rate fell by 15% in 2014 to settle at 13.1 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
• The public perception remains negative despite the improvement in crime indicators.
• the most troubled areas such as Morelos, Tamaulipas, Michoacan and Guerrero are maintained.
Mexico City-On Semaphore criminal feeds on data from the National Security System and compares with the national average in each specific offense. In 2014 recorded a decrease in the crime rate in all crimes evaluated. The most positive news is decreased by 15% in killings and kidnappings by 18% according to the same source.
In the General Traffic evaluating the total red obtained by state, Morelos, Baja California, Tamaulipas, Tabasco and Quintana Roo obtained double-red with 8 or more offenses in this color.
By contrast, states with less red in this Semaphore General are Nayarit, Puebla and San Luis Potosi.
The High Impact Traffic evaluates more related crime organized crime as murder, kidnapping and theft of vehicle, among others. In this light, the obtained double red Morelos, Tamaulipas, Guerrero and Sinaloa. At the other extreme, without appearing red in this light are Yucatán, Tlaxcala, SLP, Nayarit, Hidalgo, Guanajuato and Aguascalientes.
The Semaphore also compares each state against himself. The demarcations who successfully lose more homicide rate in 2014 are: Colima, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Guerrero, Morelos, Nayarit and Nuevo León. In vehicle theft which improved more against themselves are: Coahuila, Chihuahua, Colima, Durango, Nayarit, Nuevo Leon and Yucatan. They obtained reduction rates above 25 percent.
In this same category of high impact, is relevant to compare the percentage of executions of total homicides, it gives us an idea of the violence of organized crime and in particular the narco-retail. To generate the indicator, criminal Semaphore uses accounting executions of Lantia Consultants and compared against data from the National Security System. The national average is 51% executions for each murder.
The worst evaluated are Coahuila, Veracruz, Colima, Morelos, Zacatecas and Chihuahua. By contrast, the best rated are: Yucatán, Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Querétaro. The most notorious case highlight Nuevo Leon went from red to green in 2014.
This indicator helps to explain phenomena such as Veracruz do not get many red and therefore, seems a quiet but whose population complains of great insecurity and lack of guarantees for state reporting crimes; 85% of homicides in Veracruz are executions of mafias.
Using this same indicator we wonder how the map of homicides in Mexico would be if there were gangs of narco-retail? Change is really surprising as safe, Guerrero, no state would be in red (above the national average of 13.1 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants) and the state of Veracruz would be less violent.
In kidnapping a decline of 18% last year is observed. The states with double-red (twice above the national average) are: Tamaulipas, Morelos, Tabasco and Guerrero. By contrast, states with lower incidence of this crime are: Aguascalientes, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Campeche and Jalisco. Recall however that unlike homicide, dark figure (unreported crimes) in kidnapping is high and there may be significant variations from state to state.
Another important indicator to watch is the percentage of vehicle theft with violence. The national average is still high at 29%. The states above this average are: Sinaloa, Mexico State, Guerrero, Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. By contrast, states with less violence in auto theft are: Baja California, Sonora, Aguascalientes, Querétaro and Nayarit.
Hard data should be supplemented by surveys of victimization and perception. According to the survey of criminal Semaphore unfortunately the public perception is negative and not tied to the decrease of crime. 74% of respondents believe that insecurity has worsened, 20% think that remains the same and only 5% appreciates it has improved. It gives little confidence in their municipal, state and federal authorities in their commitment to safety and negatively evaluates judges, police and prosecutors.
According to this survey the population identifies corruption and inefficiency of the authorities as the main causes of insecurity.
The criminal Semaphore is a tool for accountability, assessment and behavioral analysis and detail of national crime rates, updated monthly and allows comparison of results between the states to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies.
The colors are not judgmental but obey statistical comparisons: It is always important to consider that greater confidence, greater reporting of crimes, which are not always entirely fair comparisons between states. However, these are the data that has the National Security System and to improve them must know, disseminate and analyze them.
The aim of the criminal Semaphore is peace. A social project sponsored by citizens that promote accountability and citizen participation. This tool also details its indicators at the municipal level in Tamaulipas, Jalisco, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Mexico State and the Federal District.
To see all the national detail and state, go to www.semaforo.com.mx
To see the survey of insecurity and other lights such as corruption and black number and project objectives go www.semaforo.mx
